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1 Introduction Poland stands at a critical juncture in its energy landscape, grappling with the challenge of transitioning from a power system heavily dependent on hard and brown/lignite coal¹ to one that aligns with ambitious decarbonization goals. The dominance of coal, historically ingrained in Poland's energy sector, poses unique challenges² as the nation endeavours to meet its commitment to a sustainable and low-carbon future. The regular changes in government³ within Poland introduce a layer of complexity to the energy landscape, posing challenges to the establishment of stable market conditions and consistent regulations. The shifting political tides can lead to fluctuations in energy policies, creating an environment where investors face uncertainties about the longevity and firmness of regulatory frameworks - where a prominent example is the unfamous anti-wind turbines law that literally stopped energy sector development for several years. This volatility in regulatory stability complicates strategic investments in the energy sector, hindering the development of long-term projects (e.g., nuclear power) valuable for the nation's decarbonization goals. Investors may be hesitant to commit resources to initiatives that could be subject to abrupt policy changes with each new administration. As a result, the need for a cohesive and enduring regulatory framework and energy policy becomes paramount to foster investor confidence, attract sustainable investments, and ensure the successful implementation of a robust and resilient energy transition strategy in Poland. The Polish power system faces both challenges and opportunities in the transition towards decarbonisation: • • • The ongoing phase-out of 'coal' is marked by a dynamic interplay of factors, including shifts in government, evolving energy policies, and a competitive landscape driven by numerous bids for energy policy dominance characterized inter alia by an advent of nuclear power, aggressive investment in renewables supported by natural gas or a combination of all options. Poland, like many regions, is dealing with challenges in balancing its electricity supply and demand. The increasing use of weather-dependent, low-cost generators and the need for expanding electricity generation and demand highlight the importance of addressing issues such as inflexible demand and having a strong grid that can handle power fluctuations. The ongoing shift towards electrifying industries in Poland provides opportunities to improve grid flexibility. Exploring technologies like hydrogen as a storage medium and their role in adjusting consumption based on grid conditions will be crucial for optimizing the power system. The changes in Poland's energy market structure, moving from historical regulations to a more liberalized framework, come with both opportunities and challenges. It is relevant to explore the need to adjust the current market design to support a smooth transition to cleaner energy while ensuring a secure and affordable power supply. Resolving conflicts of interest and simplifying permitting processes will be important for timely infrastructure development. 1 Share of Coal in the Polish Power System Miners Protesting Against the EU Policy 3 Different Parties Various Visions of the Energy System 4 Unstable Regulations Threaten the Energy System 5 Wind Power Regulations 6 Demand Side Response 7 Polish Hydrogen Strategy 11 • • • Volatility in electricity prices, combined with limited grid infrastructure and long-term energy storage, presents challenges to Poland's power system. The assessment of strategies to stabilize prices, address transmission infrastructure gaps, and stress the importance of long-term energy storage for a reliable and efficient power supply, should be pursued. The pursuit of a clean energy transition in Poland raises questions about new supply dependencies and the phasing out of existing ones. It is important to examine the impacts of these transitions on the electricity market, emphasizing the need for diversification and resilience in the face of potential disruptions. Ensuring a skilled workforce is a crucial aspect of Poland's clean energy transition, with a focus on addressing potential shortages in critical sectors. High on the agenda is the value of a balanced approach to technology neutrality, considering the unique challenges and strengths of different generation technologies in the Polish context. In the light of the challenges and opportunities described above, the current study employs a power system optimisation methodology with the aim to establish a foundation for identifying a sustainable and competitive power system for the future of the Polish energy landscape. The study explores pathways to achieve a fully decarbonized Polish power system by 2050, targeting a 99% emissions reduction from 1990 levels. Using diverse scenarios and custom GIS analysis for wind and solar potential, the modelling examines projections for key technology developments. The scenarios encompass optimistic and conservative views on investment costs, commodity prices, expansion potential, and build rates. With a dedicated multi-year capacity expansion optimization framework, the study outlines scenarios from 2030 in five-year increments until 2050. Integrating investment and dispatch optimization, relies on 35 historical weather years to construct reliable power systems with realistic dispatch schedules and electricity prices. In addition to the economic aspects of the cost-optimal power system in diverse scenarios, measures of environmental ramifications, land requirements and use of critical materials are addressed to further probe the power systems' performance with respect to sustainability. The report is structured to provide a comprehensive understanding of the study's objectives, methodologies, and findings. Beginning with an introduction that outlines the purpose and scope of the research, the subsequent sections delve into the study's design, base scenario, and various sensitivities considered. The modelling approach, tools utilized, and their limitations and exogenous assumptions are thoroughly discussed in Section 3. Input assumptions, ranging from CO2 emissions and demand scenarios to wind and solar expansion potential and thermal power plants, are detailed in Section 4. Results, scenario comparisons, and the pathway to decarbonization are presented in Section 5, offering valuable insights into the dynamic evolution of the Polish power system. The report concludes with discussions, a summary of key findings, policy recommendations, and three appendices providing additional details on input assumptions, GIS analysis, and the methodology for emissions, land use, and critical minerals. 12