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6 Executive summary Poland faces a pivotal moment in reshaping its energy landscape, transitioning away from a coal- dependent power system to meet ambitious decarbonization targets. The historical dominance of coal in Poland's energy sector presents unique challenges as the country strives for a sustainable and low-carbon future. The frequent changes introduced between governments further complicate the energy landscape, introducing uncertainties in market conditions and regulatory consistency. To foster investor confidence and ensure a resilient energy transition, Poland requires a stable and enduring regulatory framework and energy policy that transcends political changes, providing a foundation for sustainable investments and successful decarbonization efforts. This study explores diverse pathways to attain a fully decarbonized Polish power system by 2050, targeting a 99% reduction in emissions compared to 1990 levels. Utilizing carefully crafted scenarios, including custom geospatial analysis for wind and solar potential, the analysis showcases varying projections related to crucial technology developments. These scenarios encompass optimistic and conservative viewpoints on parameters such as investment costs, commodity prices, maximum expansion potential, and build rates. Employing a dedicated multi-year capacity expansion optimization framework, the study outlines scenarios from 2030 with five-year increments until 2050. This methodology integrates investment and dispatch optimization, relying on a comprehensive set of 35 historical weather years to ensure the construction of reliable power systems with realistic dispatch schedules and electricity prices. Ultimately, the study seeks to establish a foundation for identifying the most sustainable and competitive power system for the future of the Polish energy landscape. The results highlight a rapid and thorough phase-out of economically and environmentally burdensome coal power by 2035, a departure from the current trajectory of Polish energy policy, which leans towards a more delayed transition. Fossil-free onshore wind takes centre stage in driving decarbonization efforts, emerging as the dominant generation source in the Polish power system. Figure 1, reflecting the central ‘base’ scenario in this study, underscores the constituents of the decarbonized Polish power system in 2050. Rooted in a technology-neutral perspective and best- estimate input assumptions, this scenario necessitates a sustained, long-term build rate of approximately 3 GW/year for onshore wind, doubling the observed rate in Poland in 2022, and peaking in the early 2040s at a challenging7 GW/year. Offshore wind and solar PV exhibit limited cost competitiveness, assuming modest roles in the overall energy landscape. Nuclear power, reaching an installed capacity of approximately 8 GW, plays a substantial role, contributing over 15% to the annual Polish power production. This is predominantly complemented by gas power plants, amounting to an installed capacity of around 23 GW and a 10% share of the annual generation mix. The majority of this capacity is derived from open-cycle power plants, both natural gas and biogas fuelled, selected for their relatively low investment cost and high dispatchability—a crucial factor in maintaining a stable power system during extreme weather conditions and contingencies. Additionally, combined-cycle natural gas power plants equipped with carbon capture and storage contribute a noteworthy 7% to dispatchable power generation. Finally, short-term battery storage and long-duration hydrogen storage (~ 2TWh of energy storage capacity), complementing the substantial onshore wind generation in the system, contribute a discharge capacity of approximately 2 GW and 4 GW, respectively.